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Sunday, September 23, 2007

Romanian Labour Force

Here is some initial data on the Romanian labour force.

Apart from some considerable seasonal volatility there is not too much in the way of a trend to identify here, except, of course, that total employment is not increasing, which is not perhaps surprising. Here now are the numbers of unemployed, and again apart from the volatility there is not a lot to note, except that the numbers are slowly declining.

Again, if we look at the annualised data we can see the position a bit more clearly, since all three - labour force, total employed and numbers of unemployed are all coming slowly and steadily down. This is very common and not especially surprising trend in a steadily ageing society. What is not at all clear is how you can expect to get rates of growth of 5, 6 or 7 per cent annually with such a static labour force.

1 comment:

Nbruch said...

you have got to consider the fact that there are alot of "grey" workers in Romania. so the numbers can be changing quite a bit but it would be difficult to know from the outside. also you have to consider the efficency gains that are coming in with a more advanced economy.

take a look at the news today and you see BCR cutting over 2000 employees. Despite those cuts they will probably grow well above 10% this year. this can explain alot of that 5-6%.

i agree with you in the long term though. Romania needs a solution to its labor problem and quite frankly the only easy answer is better universities and lots of skill immigration.